SEC MIDSEASON STOCK REPORT
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KNOW YOUR NUMBERS
We are just past the halfway mark of the college football season and as usual, it has been filled with a plethora of surprises both positive and negative within The SEC. Because of the rapidly changing landscape of college football from NIL and the transfer portal, traditional storylines are being thrown out the window at a record pace. Don’t believe me? Honestly raise your hand if you had Vanderbilt in the AP Top 25 with an actual shot at making the college football playoffs heading into the last football weekend in October. The last time that happened was never along with the Commodores being positioned higher than Alabama in league standings after whipping the Tide, no one had Texas A&M leading the conference this time of year, Ole Miss with navigable schedule falling faster than Enron Stock, and Auburn being without a win in SEC play. In Hugh We Trust Still, Auburn fans?
https://www.secsports.com/standings/football
Nationally the expanded college football playoffs have made the meat of this part of the season as exciting as ever. Normally by now two loss teams are positioning themselves for the best possible bowl game to be invited to. According to ESPN’s Football Power Index, there are well north of over 30 teams with two losses or less with albeit a small percentage, an actual shot at making the college football playoffs! Who said that playoff expansion was a terrible idea?
https://www.espn.com/college-football/fpi
Looking over the latest odds with the boys in Vegas, you can clearly see several teams that are a decent play to make the 12-Team Playoff that you would normally never see with those odds. Normally about now perhaps six to maybe eight teams would be eyeing their shot all named Alabama, Oklahoma, Clemson, Ohio State, Georgia and some former Pac-12 West Coast team that has no chance of winning it all. Since when did BYU, Iowa State, SMU, UNLV, Bosie State and Indiana (are you kidding me, the Hoosiers) have a better shot at making the playoffs than most?
https://www.thelines.com/odds/college-football/playoff/
With all the confusion in this Brave New World of college football, we thought with the rest of the season to go we would issue our semi-annual “SEC Stock Report” and give all the pickers, players, fanatics and haters some guidance for the rest of the season.
Texas A&M - (HOLD) Left for dead after a week one loss to Notre Dame at home, The Aggies have rattled off five straight wins including a bludgeoning of then ranked #9 Missouri at home 41-10. Red hot Texas A&M host red hot #8 LSU (+2.5) Saturday Night in College Station. After that A&M travels to salty South Carolina, woeful Auburn and then back home reunited again with their old friends from Austin in Texas. LSU 30, Texas A&M 27.
LSU - (BUY) See #1 in the SEC Texas A&M. If not for a very disappointing week one collapse against USC, The Bayou Bengals would be undefeated and most likely ranked one or two in The AP Top 25. QB Garrett Nussmeir is the most underrated quaterback in the country and should be a dark horse Heisman candidate. LSU travels to College Station Saturday, takes a perfect bye week and then hosts Bama, has Vandy and finishes the year against dreadful Oklahoma. LSU along with A&M can easily afford another loss to make the playoffs.
Georgia - (BUY) - This past Saturday Kirby Smart showed Texas what it means to “mess around in the SEC and find out”. Georgia is on bye this weekend and then travel to Jacksonville for “The World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party” against Florida. Tough games against Ole Miss and Tennessee loom, but UGA is the one team in college football who could lose two more games and have a legitimate argument of making the playoffs. They are that tough and despite losing to Alabama earlier in the season, the gold standard program in SEC football now that Ms. Terry made Nick Saban quit.
Tennessee - (HOLD) - The Vols may have saved a rocky top season with their win over undisciplined Alabama in the “Third Saturday in October” last Saturday. UT with just one loss now, has Kentucky, UGA and Vandy left on their schedule. Tennessee can go 2/3 in those games and be poised to make the college football playoffs. If that offense can get clicking again, watch out college football because the Vols after nearly 25 years have a defense.
Missouri - (HOLD) - At 6-1 Mizzou could have lost to Boston College but did not, should have lost to Vandy and Auburn, but did not and now should lose to Alabama (-13.5) this weekend in Tuscaloosa. But will they? If QB Brady Cook is 100% healthy after a hospital trip and then gritty comeback win against Auburn, Missouri can do enough to beat an Alabama squad that is a shell of the Saban squads from the past. In fact, Mizzou can afford a loss at Alabama with a manageable remaining schedule remaining. Bama 30, Mizzou 25.
Texas - (BUY) - UT better watch out this weekend in Nashville a favorite against upstart Vanderbilt (+18.5). After a bitter loss to King Kirby and his barking Dawgs, Texas now has a tricky away game against a team that has been historically left for dead in The SEC. That was then, and Diego Pavia at QB is now. You remember him Auburn fans? He is the now Vandy QB who was the QB for New Mexico State who came to Jordan-Hare Stadium last year and took Hugh Freeze’s manhood back with him to the Land of Enchantment. Ain’t no way right, the eyes of Texas get filled with tears in Nashville this weekend? UT 35, Vandy 27.
Alabama - (SELL) - No Saban, No Bueno! Kalen DeBoer so far at Alabama has built a team that is an undisciplined wreck. Oh, for LANK’s sake you say? When the head coach did not discipline team captain Malachi Moore for not only slamming a Vandy player in anger, kicking a ball spotted by a ref and then throwing an idiot fit temper tantrum while refusing to be subbed out of a game, you knew that Tuscaloosa has a problem. The Tide leads the league in total penalties this season at 62 and only trails Miss State by 44 total penalty yards. 15-yard personal fouls here, 15-yard personal fouls there, 15-yard personal fouls for the Tide everywhere! With two losses and a season on the brink, one more loss will send Alabama fans into complete frantic. A trip to Baton Rouge in two weeks may just do it. Hide yo kids, hide yo wives, hide yo trees and can someone get DHR in Blount, Jefferson, Tuscaloosa and Walker Counties on high alert?
Arkansas - (SELL) - Been a nice run for the tough Hogs but a bad loss at home to LSU last Saturday Night really exposed a program devoid of elite SEC talent and depth. After almost losing his job last year, a good man in head coach Sam Pittman went out and made his team better. The Hogs brought in hard-nosed Bobby Petrino to run a stagnant offense while hitting the transfer portal hard upgrading the roster. Unfortunately, it is just not enough for a nice football program caught between the ever-expanding SEC rock and a hard place. At Miss State (+7) this weekend, bruised and battered Arkansas needs to be careful of a letdown. A win here will alomost secure a desperately needed bowl berth with games left against Ole Miss, Texas, La Tech and Missouri. Arky 28, State 27.
Florida - (SELL) - Been nice knowing you, Billy! Gator head man, Billy Napier, drew maybe one of the hardest schedules in the history of the SEC. To be 4-3 now with the hottest of hot seats Kenny Roasters style in Gainesville is an accomplishment. With games against UGA, Texas, LSU, Ole Miss and FSU left to go, 2-3 in that run would be a miracle. Do you believe in miracles? Sure, but not this year in Florida. I would like to welcome new Gator head coach Lane Kiffin to Florida! Hide yo kids, hide yo wives, hide yo coeds!
Ole Miss - (HOLD) - Speaking of one Lane Kiffin. Has there ever been a more annoying brat coaching the college football game not named Bryan Harsin? Talk about not keeping your eye on the ball, man. Whether it is taking shots at Auburn football, basketball, baseball, courting Florida and God knows what else, watching Bama lose in a paused post-game presser to Vandy or just walking around most times in a complete daydream, what a missed opportunity this season in Oxford. FOCUS ON YOUR OWN PROGRAM DUMMY! There is still time for Ole Miss this season to rally the Rebels into a college football playoff, but does anyone have real faith that Colonel Kiffin can do just that? The swag will be back in Oxford again Saturday after pummeling horrible OU (+20), and then will crash back to earth quickly at Arky, hosting UGA and then at his new home next year Florida followed by The Egg Bowl where Lane lays eggs. Ole Miss 42, Oklahoma 10.
South Carolina - (BUY) - No one in the SEC is doing more with less in their program than Shane Beamer. The Head Cock and Coach is one of the best young coaches in college football. An all-around good dude with tons of charisma and from a football family, Coach Beamer brings a more longed for “old skool” approach to coaching. South Carolina is salty, tough, physical and their fans are both loyal plus rabid. On bye this week, USC of the East will get a shot at ruining Texas A&M hopes next Friday Night in Columbia. That will be one of the loudest stadiums in the country this year as South Carolina lays in wait. Pony up the money South Carolina because if you do not, maybe Auburn will. Extra pick, if QB LaNorris Sellers stays healthy, South Carolina whips Clemson to end the season. FACT!
Oklahoma - (SELL MORTIMER, SELL) - Speaking of programs that could use their former assistant, Shane Beamer, I present to you The University of Oklahoma. Coming off a Sooner Booming from South Carolina at home, OU must travel to Ole Miss, travel to Mizzou, host Bama and then head to Baton Rouge against LSU to end the season. If not for Auburn’s complete collapse up 11 with the ball in the fourth on first down in OU territory, The Sooners could have gone for the big donut hole ZERO WINS in their first season in the SEC. Welcome to the big-league boys and round ‘em up Sooners! Some coordinators are just not meant to be head coaches, cough cough Will Muschamp, and Brent Venebles at Oklahoma may have messed around to find out this season.
Kentucky - (SELL) - Let’s face it, there are some programs in the SEC who will never, ever and I mean ever make it to the top in football. UK is one of those programs. In the perpetual expanding world of college football, The Wildcats are the North Star of mediocrity. Hosting putrid Auburn (+3, are you kidding me) this weekend, Head Coach Mark Stoops is looking to have his program back to .500. Since 1966 Kentucky has beaten AU just one time going back to 2009 when Randall Cobb played almost every position on the field exhausting himself against Gene Chizik in his first year winning 21-14. In fact, historically UK is 6-27-1 against Auburn in football. Can UK make it lucky number 7 Saturday Night in Lexington? With an over/under in this game at 17 it would be hard to see how they could not? But remember folks, this is Kentucky football not basketball. Kentucky 9, Auburn 10.
Auburn - (SELL) - Speaking of losers, has there been a more disappointing season in Auburn football history not named 1991, 1992, 1998, 2008, 2012, the Bryan Harsin years and last year than 2024 Auburn football? Despite losing to New Mexico State, gagging against Alabama in the Iron Bowl and no showing the Music City Bowl against Maryland to end the 2023 season, Coach Hugh Freeze had all the momentum in the world off the field with continued fan super support, strong recruiting, and support of the administration plus power boosters which make any program go round and round. At 2-5 now with losses at home to mediocre Cal and Arkansas and blowing games that were practically won to OU and Mizzou, Auburn fans out of that group above feel left holding the bag again. How many more times can Auburn University pull the wool over the fanbase eyes without serious repercussions? Like a complete overhaul of The so-called Board of Trustees? Just saying under their watch plus approval, Auburn hired loser Steven Leath, who hired loser Allen Greene, who then hired a possible scientologist to coach football here in Bryan Harsin. Not to mention between Malzahn and Harsin, The BOT approved contracts which cost Auburn over 37 million in three years between those two failures in buyouts. Folks, the word “trust” is part of the word “trustee”. The Tigers have not won more than six games in a season since 2019!!! This is the worst run in college football for Auburn since beginning way back in 1946 to 1950! Carl Voyles and “Downtown” Earl Brown were roaming the sidelines then for Auburn culminating in 1950, the year before Shug Jordan was mercifully hired, with a 0-10 overall record. In 1951 Auburn finally woke up hiring a hard-nosed good man who led the Tigers for the next 25 years establishing an identity of AU football as physical, tough, and ready to fight at a moment’s notice anytime, anywhere. Fast forward 75 years and ask yourself “Self, does Auburn football have a Shug Jordan/Pat Dye like identity now”? At the moment that answer is obvious. How quickly can that mentality change and is Hugh Freeze the man to change it? Only time will tell but until Auburn re-establishes their blue-collar mentality in football, the beatings will most definitely continue but the morale will never improve.
Miss State - (SELL) - Although I think State would beat Auburn right now in football, just trust us and you better sell. State is a dog with fleas, penny stock and has NO HOPE of ever competing seriously in football within the SEC. This is a borderline Sun Belt, no offense Troy, level football program that lost at home badly to Toledo this year. Holy Toledo, Bulldogs! Head Coach Jeff Libby is likable and talented, so what in the world is he doing in Stark Vegas? One way or another he will not be there long but on the bright side State fans, baseball season is just four months away!
P.S. I forgot Vanderbilt! Drink the Commodore Kool-Aid and BUY all you can. Clark Lea is a solid young coach and with Diego Pavia, the Nashville Nerds look to come down to Auburn in two weeks looking to sink Auburn in 2024 for good. Anchors down! With Texas, at Auburn, South Carolina, at LSU and hosting Tennessee left, the remaining waters are choppy. The fact is Vandy is ranked #25 in the country right now and sits at 5-2. For most teams that is the equivalent of winning the National Championship. Congratulations Vanderbilt on your mid-season National Championship!!!