The Race is On
Brought to you by our good friends at Roots Real Estate
“Find yourself some solid ground to plant your roots and settle down!”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dj7ahuCHGbM
If there is any old-school country singer who captures the ups and downs of life better than George Jones, they would be hard to find. Several media outlets of his time referred to Mr. Jones as country music’s Holy Ghost. The pain felt in his voice completely captures the What if concept of life caused by self-inflicted wounds, pride, and generational sin. If George Jones was alive today, he would definitely be a college football fan, and many of his songs would encapsulate what it feels like to pour your heart into the program you cheer for.
With the release of the first BCS Rankings on Halloween night this week, The Race is On officially to see who your 2023 College Football National Champion will be!
https://www.espn.com/college-football/rankings
Now the race is on, here comes Bama and Texas in backstretch, Oregon is headed to the inside, Washington is trying to hold them back, and The Top Four are trying not to fall!
Not exactly the same lyrics that Mr. Jones made so famous in his September 1964 release The Race is On linked above. Instead of the fan himself, maybe George Jones would better identify as one of the teams within the race that is about to absolutely let their fans down, only to rise again, fall and maybe rise again.
The rankings themselves really do not matter now with so much football left in the entire month of November. Even before the release of the first poll Tuesday, the politicking and debating had begun by coaches, media and fans trying to frame their programs to their best advantage of making the Final Four. Phrases like “Strength of Schedule”, “The Eye Test”, “Best wins or worst losses” have been thrown around this week ad nauseum. The key indicator in any debate, logic, seems to be ignored by the passionate, biased fan. And make no mistake folks, the person on the TV breaking down the rankings, the people making the rankings and the pundit in the newspapers or radio are just as big a fan, if not more, than the person sitting in the stadiums cheering their life away! Arguments are beginning to percolate locally here in the great State of Alabama by some that even a one-loss Tide team could jump a one-loss Texas team into the final BCS Playoff spot despite Texas already beating Alabama decisively in week two. The mental gymnastics and denial it takes to justify throwing out head-to head competition in lieu of whatever resonates about as much as what it took George Jones to deny his demons for many years. Do not scoff at that-it is very real in today’s national sports beauty pageant known as college football. That being said, there are many factors that should be looked at and below are just a few that Radio Free Auburn would utilize if on the selection committee.
Head-to-Head Competition
Record
Common Opponents
Strength of Schedule
Opponents Strength of Schedule
Big Wins
Conference Toughness
Conference Champion or Not
Division Champion or Not
Bad Losses
Eye Test
Injuries
What is not on that list, and nor should it be, is the historic championship pedigree, bias towards a coach or team, team brand, how much money a program has compared to others, your coach whining constantly on national TV, or having a “superstar” playing in the running for The Heisman. Unfortunately, college football championships have been, and really are still today, albeit better, an event in sports that are determined by nothing more than bias. Also known as a beauty pageant. For if it were not, and terms being thrown around by many locally today like “Strength of Schedule, Championships, Conference toughness and common opponents”, then the 1983 Auburn Tigers would have been crowned national champions then instead of must claiming it now.
https://www.aufamily.com/topic/72547-remembering-the-1983-auburn-tigers/
In order not to get completely lost in the weeds here, let us now turn the page back 40 years from 1983 to 2023 and what is going on in college football this Saturday.
https://apnews.com/hub/ap-top-25-college-football-poll
Georgia –15.5 vs Missouri – The “He Stopped Loving Her Today” game of the week. The entire college football world has been in awe with what Mizzou has pulled off so far this season. Picked low preseason in the SEC Eastern Division, The Tigers have parlayed a sound defense with a dynamic offense vaulting up the division standings. No team played UGA tougher in the east the last year, losing 26-22. Unfortunately for Missouri, The Bulldogs have hit their stride and look to dump The Tigers once and for all Saturday at home. The run and love are over for Missouri folks. UGA 35, UM 24.
Washington –3 vs Southern Cal – Your “White Lightning” let it grip and rip anything goes game of the week. With an over/under of 75.5, do not expect a lot of defense to be played by either team this Saturday in Los Angelas. The Huskies from the great northwest have shown signs of weakness since slipping past Oregon to stay undefeated a few weeks ago. The Trojans on the other hand have dropped 2/3 with the only win against pitiful Cal 50-49. Look for Washington QB Michael Penix Jr. to get back into the Heisman hunt Saturday after a lull in his campaign lately. There could very well be over 1200 yards combined by both teams here. UW 52, USC 48.
Texas –4.5 vs Kansas State – Texas “Don’t Need Your Rocking Chair” Saturday morning at home in Austin, TX versus a solid Kansas State program looking to send The Longhorns championship aspirations into retirement. Speaking of recent common opponents, Houston has played both two teams in subsequent weeks. Two weeks ago, The Cougars lost to Texas at home 31-24. Last weekend, Houston bombed out in "the little apple” losing 41-0. Do not fall into this trap predicting the outcome of this game. Common opponents are good for determining possible playoff spots after the fact and not handicapping specific games. The Longhorns have a little too much defense for The Wildcats. UT 28, KSO 24.
Alabama –3 vs LSU - “If Drinkin’ Don’t Kill Me” then watching LSU blow a big lead like Tennessee did against Alabama two weeks ago will. Not to fade Ole Miss, but the Western Division Championship of the SEC will be determined in primetime on CBS Saturday Night in Bryant-Denny Stadium. Both teams come off a bye week, but Alabama is much healthier than LSU heading into this game. The Bayou Bengals have multiple injuries on the defensive side of the ball and that unit has struggled mightily at times already this season. Nevertheless, LSU QB Jayden Daniels and the LSU offense has been on fire since losing Labor Day weekend against FSU. With the total on this game sitting at 60.5, do not look for that classic 9-6 2011 “Game of the century” or whatever between these two in Tuscaloosa. Can Alabama keep up with LSU scoring wise in this game? If they cannot, I am sure the refs can! UA 37, LSU 35.
Oklahoma –6 vs Oklahoma State – Go ahead and enjoy some of “Yesterday’s Wine” in what could be one of the last installments due to expansion of “Bedlam” between these two in-state rivals. Over the years it has not been much of a rivalry with The Sooners owning this game 91-19-7 over The Cowboys. Since upsetting Texas in “The Red River Rivalry”, OU defensively has struggled to a weird win over UCF and a late loss at Kansas. Despite having the same record and a win over Texas, who has a win over Alabama with the same record, Oklahoma fell behind both teams in the first BCS Rankings. None of that will matter for The Sooners after Saturday in Stillwater and this will be OSU Super Bowl. OSU 38, OU 37.
Ole Miss –3 vs Texas A&M – The Grove could have “Bartender’s Blues” Saturday morning as The Aggies come to Oxford in a matchup against The Rebels. It seems every week is “do or die” for Texas A&M head coach Jimbo Fisher. Ole Miss has basically rolled every weekend this football season except for against Alabama. Despite being known as an offensive guru, Lane Kiffin struggles against teams with solid defenses. There is a ton of talent on the Aggie defense, especially on the defensive line. If Ole Miss cannot run the ball consistently Saturday, bartenders in The Grove will work overtime after the game. Upset alert in an ugly, lower scoring SEC Saturday morning game. TAM 24, OM 21.
https://www.secsports.com/schedule/football
All 14 SEC teams will be in action this weekend. The games of the week within AP 25 rankings we mentioned above. Outside of those games other than Tennessee, there is not a ranked team playing Saturday from the league. Despite there being six ranked teams in the AP, the league feels down in 2023. Teams like Arkansas and Kentucky have surely disappointed this season while other teams like Auburn and Florida try to rebuild once proud programs. Vandy, Miss State and others really are what we thought they would be preseason-brutal!
UCONN +35.5 at Tenn – Bloodbath alert. Vols 60, Huskies 10.
Arky +5.5 at Florida – Arkansas fired their OC and it’s a good thing. Hogs 25, Gators 24.
Jacksonville State +15.5 at South Carolina – Watch out, Gamecocks. USC 32, JSU 28.
Kentucky –3.5 at Miss St. - Just play the under. Cats 20, MSU 10.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IQf_WyTipv0
We brought up the “big hair” highlights last weekend of Auburn in 1986 at Mississippi State and pointed out the viciousness of what Tiger football once represented. You can see more of that if you like in the link above when AU traveled to Nashville that same year to take on Vanderbilt. Just like undefeated Auburn took care of business against The Bulldogs that year, they took care of the lowly Commodores 31-9 to remain unbeaten. Will AU return to this tough brand of fundamental football in my lifetime? That remains to be seen but this Saturday would be a good time to restart that concept like they did last weekend against Miss. State winning 27-13.
Auburn –12.5 at Vanderbilt – Hard to believe that these two teams have “Walked through the World” with one another since their very first meeting in 1893. Despite beginning to play against each other before the automobile, and both schools only being 300 miles apart, the two teams have only squared off 43 times with the record being 21-21-1. Auburn football must have been Bryan Harsin bad from 1930 to 1950 with Vandy winning 8 straight in the series during that timeframe. The last time these two faced off was in 2016 with Auburn winning 23-16 at home but the last two trips to Nashville for The Tigers have been awful. In 2012 Vanderbilt won 17-13 and in 2008 14-13 both at home. Those two losses helped end the careers at Auburn for Gene Chizik in 2012 and Tommy Tuberville in 2008 as head coach of The Tigers. A loss here would not end Hugh Freeze career at Auburn, but it would definitely put an early stain on it. Kind of like when a first-year coach in the state lost to LA Monroe in 2007 while on the sidelines. At 2-7 The Commodores sit dead last in the SEC where they have historically sat as the absolute worst team in the history of the current SEC teams. That being said, do not tell Auburn Head Coach Huge Freeze that as he calls this game “scary”.
Auburn has clearly struggled on the road against Power 5 teams this season with a near miss win against Cal and two ugly losses against Texas A&M plus LSU. Despite being a full rebuild, this program should never be scared against Vanderbilt. AU fans should be aware, but some are still not, that any win right now should not be judged. But a loss to Vanderbilt as a 12.5 favorite would. Any rational fan of this program would take a one-point win against Vandy year one and move on to the next week above .500 for the first time since week 3. We all know though how “rational” fans can be. Vanderbilt does not run the ball well, has a worse defense than a Miss. State team AU beatdown last week, does not have the talent Auburn does and could be breaking in a new QB again this weekend. On the other hand, Auburn runs the ball very well, plays solid defense despite being shorthanded, found their QB last week moving forward, and has more talent than the Commodores as usual. Look for Auburn to jump on Vandy early, build a lead on the road, protect the lead and hold on for Hugh Freeze’s second SEC win as head coach on the plains. Tigers 27, Dores 14.