Week Four Donnybrook in Jordan-Hare
Week Four of college football brought to you by Gameday Men’s Health in Auburn. Tired of feeling tired? Text 334-209-3706 and start feeling better!
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Quick recap on the year for the pickers out there here at Radio Free Auburn.
Week Zero - 2-2
Week One - 0-3
Week Two - 4-2
Week Three - 7-6
That puts RFA at 13-13 for the year if you are keeping score at home. The way the season is unfolding so far this year for most players, we will take it. According to several local sources, “the man” has been taking it to pickers, players and haters all year. In the past, the partakers seemed to have an edge early in the season while building up a bankroll playing the favorites heavy. The around Halloween, “the bookie’s night”, local man and his band of masked chilling underlings known as the empire most definitely strike back! Rivalry season then favors the players, bowl season wipes them out and then local man ruins Christmas and New Year’s resolutions by driving a stake through all parlays and bowl pool pickems. Remember, no one is putting a gun to your head making you play those teasers, and this is the life we choose. Unfortunately, in today’s ever-changing landscape of college football with the transfer portal factor alone, it is more difficult than ever to wade through the data of rosters for each team and how they affect spreads from year-to-year.
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Auburn –2.5 vs Arkansas – The Tigers lead the Razorbacks in this series 20-12-1. For a program that has had a lot of ups and downs (mostly downs), the last ten years have been very kind to Auburn against Arkansas at 8-2. Since a 2014 drubbing of Arkansas 45-21, the Tigers have averaged 43 points per game against the Hogs. Even a putrid 2022 and thankfully final Bryan Harsin season at Auburn team went for 27 points in a loss. Auburn has not won more than six games in a season since 2019, and in that span beginning in 2020, the Tigers averaged 36 points per game in this matchup. It is a gross understatement to say Auburn has had Arkansas’ number.
Comparing that to the matchup today at 2:30 inside Jordan-Hare Stadium, one factor over the last ten years is missing. Robert Patrick Petrino. Auburn fans you know him, you secretly love him, and he should have been on those sidelines on Pat Dye Field at some point in our lives as head coach of Auburn. FACT. The history of Auburn and Bobby Petrino go back to 2002 when he was hired as OC replacing Tuberville disciple Noel Mazzone in that role. The Montana native and Carroll College alumni’s story only twist and turns with Auburn from there. No need to rehash ancient history, but to say there was flirting with Petrino more than once to become head coach at Auburn is also a gross understatement. More like a full-blown love affair that become known scandalous side action put not only in the streets, but the papers too!
More recent history has Petrino sticking it to Auburn as last year’s OC at Texas A&M. A team that so underperformed yet again, they fired their head coach and sometimes AU side action Jimbo Fisher. Don’t judge folks, all teams not coached by Nick Saban and now Kirby Smart cheat on their head coaches, and vice-versa! Last year Bobby Petrino and his offense put up 402 total yards on Auburn in a 27-10 Aggie romping over the Tigers. With a very balanced offense, Texas A&M passed for 193 yards (about twice the length of a football field) while running for 209 (more than twice the length of a football field) even after their starting QB was knocked out of the game and Brazos County, Texas.
On the other sideline in that game coordinating the defense for The Aggies is now Auburn DC D.J. Durkin. The Tiger's defense has given up more yards in the last two weeks of this season than the Germans on D-Day but teams this season have only averaged 14 points a game against Durkin. If that continues today, and it is very doubtful that will, Auburn will blow Arkansas out of the water. Is there any correlation to success with the Durkin vs Petrino dynamic of being on staff together last season? One would think that both would have some sort of inkling about tendencies and overall concept about the other due to natural familiarity. But what was mentioned above about the ever-changing landscape of college football from year-to-year also comes into play here. There really is no more advantage to either coordinator by coaching together last year because perennial and radical roster changes create too much havoc this early in the season to look for any secret edge.
One tendency that is very evident for AU this year has been conservative defensive play in the first half of football games. Both California and New Mexico made much of their offensive hay early in games against Auburn and then the Tigers adjusted by stifling opponents as the game went on. Auburn cannot expect to win with this strategy today against a very aggressive offensive mind like Bobby Petrino. The Tigers must not drop back in zone continually against Arkansas or Petrino will slaughter Tiger defensive backs with crossing routes mixed in with ball control running. Durkin must turn the tables on the aggressor early and be the aggressor with constant pressure coming from more confusing blitz schemes. If Auburn does not get Arkansas and new QB transfer Taylen Green on tilt with pressure, it could be a very long day for Auburn fans. The 6’6” Boise transfer is a big and can-do damage running the ball in scramble, which is frightening to any DC, but that is the risk you must take against him and Petrino. Think Jalen Milroe from last year’s Iron Bowl folks, if you can stomach it. What did it look like Tiger fans when he was under duress and scrambling around the field especially when blitzed to push him against his throwing arm side? Survey says, much better than when he was given a spy with a clean pocket says 4th and 31.
As you can see with the scoring average above, defensively Arkansas has been dreadful for years. In fact, no one on earth not named Ken Hatfield can remember the last time the Hogs had a competent defense. Former AU linebacker, Travis Williams, heads up that side of the ball for Arkansas. Williams played for an AU team that went undefeated in 2004 and there are zero similarities to that squad with his current defense now in Fayetteville. UAB went for 27 last week against Arkansas and the week before Oklahoma State went for 39. The Hogs give up points and have for years now in bunches. Remember folks, an AU team that crapped out against New Mexico State last year went to Arkansas and won in a bloodbath 48-10. After that came Hogs all around the south calling for head coach Sam Pittman to be fired. He survived that once and made a smart move to hopefully not have to survive it again by hiring the salty veteran Petrino for help. Question, and just for you know what and giggles. Auburn moved on from their OC Phillip Montgomery last season also. Did anyone on Hugh Freeze’s staff including the head coach himself consider bringing the former Aggie OC Bobby Petrino to the plains along with former Aggie DC D.J. Durkin? Just a thought.
Tigers 31, Hogs 30.