Halfway Through 2023 Football Season
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Thoughts on Auburn football during the bye week turn our attention towards more national story lines. It is hard to believe that after this weekend, half of the college football season 2023 will be over. With the schedule like the leaves in the trees turning towards October, the meat of the season is quickly upon us fans. Checking out the Uncle TBONE Top 20 below, you will see 17 undefeated teams ranked before getting to #18 once beaten Notre Dame.
https://www.radiofreeauburn.com/blog/uncle-tbone-top-20-3
All Top 20 of these teams and a few not even ranked could theoretically still make it to the College Football Final Four Playoffs. Percentage wise it is highly unlikely that obviously most of these teams will not sniff the playoffs at the end of the season, but in the famous words of Lloyd Christmas from Dumb and Dumber, “So you’re telling me there’s a chance.”
Dumb and Dumber 'There's a Chance'
As you go down the poll, the percent probability of making the playoffs decreases incrementally each week moving forward. Not even ranked teams now, like undefeated Fresno State and one loss teams such as Ole Miss and Oregon State, are ranging at less than 1% likely to represent. The only team further down the poll team with a better percentage chance than their ranking is Michigan. Radio Free Auburn has them ranked abnormally low compared to everyone else because their schedule this season is really pathetic. Jerry Palm from CBS Sports below has Michigan squarely in the National Championship hunt.
Yours truly predicted pre-season that the Final Four in order would be Florida State, Texas, Penn State, and Alabama. We still feel confident on ¾ of the picks there and you can decide on which one we are wavering on. Both Palm’s and RFA’s projections lack a Pac-12 team involved with the playoffs. That soon to be dissolved conference has proven through the first six weeks of the season to be the most competitive. Will that hold true through the second half of the season landing say Oregon, Washington, or USC in the Final Four? Looking at things now, it is tough to leave out a Pac-12 team in the playoffs but not doing so in my predictions would most likely entail bumping Alabama out, which in turn would have possibly no SEC team for the first time ever in the BCS College Football Playoffs. “Say it ain’t so, your drug is a heartbreaker!” BTW, if you do not like Weezer, get your head checked soon!
Weezer - Say It Ain't So (Official Video)
From here on out, every game involving an AP TOP 25 team will have championship ramifications either conference or nationally. Teams at or near the bottom of the poll are looking to take care of business on their part, and hope for chaotic defeat above them. Undefeated teams playing close games that come down to the wire will not help. Poll bottom feeders need ugly upsets of higher ranked teams, blow-outs in unbeaten match ups, and for the team that defeated them to keep winning until the bitter end of the season. For example, Alabama needs to keep winning, for Texas to keep winning big, and then for The Longhorns to stumble late in the regular season then in a conference championship to a two-loss team. The same can be said for Texas A&M in regard to Miami or Notre Dame regarding Ohio State.
https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/38512499/ap-poll-reaction-next-top-25-team
The following games within The Top 25 highlight the now meat of the season in Week 6 of college football. Here are the undefeated matchups first.
#1 Georgia –14.5 hosting #20 Kentucky
#3 Texas –6.5 neutral site vs #12 Oklahoma
#4 Ohio State –18.5 hosting unranked 5-0 Maryland
Six undefeated AP TOP 25 teams will square off Saturday beginning with Texas vs Oklahoma at 11:00 AM CST on ABC inside The Cotton Bowl in Dallas, Texas. The worst thing that could happen here for a team like Alabama is for Texas to lose. That would put a one-loss Tide team pushing a wet noodle up a hill the rest of the season against Texas who beat them and Oklahoma who beat Texas. As stated above, the worst thing that could happen to Notre Dame is Ohio State going down against Maryland. But the sledding would be a touch easier for The Irish in that scenario with Maryland more likely to drop two games than Oklahoma. Then the Irish would need Ohio State to lose again.
There are several sexy undefeated vs one loss match ups also looming within The AP TOP 25 this weekend with strong playoff implications. One two loss vs undefeated matchup as well.
#10 Notre Dame –6.5 at #25 Louisville
#13 Washington State +3.5 at UCLA
#21 Missouri +6.5 hosting #23 LSU
As you can see, the playoff deck of cards will shuffle dramatically after this Saturday and will continue to change rapidly every week through Halloween into November. The poll contenders by later fall with possible playoff programs will be cut in half by early November. By conference championship time, those teams left standing will be cut in half again with 5-7 teams historically at most who could qualify for the playoffs. Those contenders will not only be positioning themselves on the field and in the media for one of those coveted spots but will also be politicking for ranking within the Final Four. There are so many undefeated teams this year heading into October, that RFA predicts a record number of up to 10 teams that could make an argument for that last spot end of season.
As for the teams right now on the outside of the playoff hunt looking in, there is certainly more than just pride to play for. Without any doubt, teams like Auburn or LSU for example would clearly much rather be in the mix for championships. But those teams still have plenty to play for and will be looking to move their programs forward in several ways. One, multiple loss teams can still play spoiler to several of their rivals ruining their championship dreams. Two, first year coaches like Hugh Freeze want to see their teams win some games they should not to help them qualify for a bowl game plus the extra practice it can bring to a young roster. Finally, teams with more losses than others want to prove to important recruits that their program is okay to sign on with because things are moving in the right direction.
https://www.secsports.com/schedule/football
LSU –6.5 at Mizzou- This game has crazy crakes written all over it.
Miss State –20.5 hosting W. Michigan- Would you ever bet on W. Michigan?
Bama –3 at Texas A&M- Last two games points are 3.5 between the two teams.
Vandy +18.5 at Florida- Gators better cover here for fans sanity.
Kentucky +14.5 at Georgia- Kentucky 23/Brock Bowers 21.
Arkansas +11.5 at Ole Miss- Either team have gas left in the tank?
Final Thoughts on Deep South’s Oldest Rivalry 2023
The team with the best player on the field won the game. Brock Bowers from Georgia is not only the best Tight End in college football, outside of Travis Kelce, plus a very few others in the NFL, but is one of the best Tight Ends in all of football. If Auburn makes two to three stops on Bowers causing incompletes, do the Tigers win the game?
From an armchair QB fan, a few plays may have cost Auburn the game despite not having Brock Bowers on their team. The first was late in the 2nd quarter when on 3rd and 1, Auburn subbed Redzone Robby Ashford out at QB while driving into Georgia’s redzone. This was a mistake allowing UGA to sub, catch their breath and it allowed the opposing coaching staff a few seconds to get their bearings looking over Auburn’s personnel and formation. After not obtaining the first down, Auburn did not kick the field goal opting to go for first down on a very long 4th and 1. They did not get the first down on the next play either and a field goal puts The Tigers up 13-10 heading into half. Take the points always early in the game!!!!!
It is obvious that Head Coach Hugh Freeze for Auburn has become more involved with the Tiger offense. Unfortunately, Coach Freeze cannot play Wide Receiver because Auburn sure could use some help on the outside. This has been a painful recurring theme at Auburn for years now. Where are the playmakers on the outside at Auburn? Dropped passes haunted Auburn all afternoon inside Jordan-Hare Stadium. 6 of 9 incomplete passes by Payton Thorne Saturday against UGA were dropped by receivers. If they catch half of those drops does Auburn win?
Not to worry AU fans, help is on the way sooner than later. Recruiting remains red hot on the plains and 100s of top high school players saw an outgunned Tiger team go toe-to-toe against two time defending National Champion Georgia. If Auburn can maintain current commits, lock down 8-10 more in this class, Hugh Freeze and staff will clearly be staring down a Top Five recruiting class nationally. Look for WR Perry Thompson to come into Auburn next year and impact the staff’s second season like WR Julio Jones did at Alabama in 2008. Like Novocain, give it some time, Auburn fans, for what is happening on the plains to set in. Once it does and there is a more level playing field with talent vs other top programs in the SEC, if there is defeat, personal cheap shots against this staff’s abilities may be more warranted. Until then, take your negative twitter, unrealistic expectations, unruly comments and cheap shots about the coaches across the state where they belong. We are only five games in!!! Relax, support your team when they down, or do not support them plus the coaches if they get up.
Auburn has yet to lose five games into this season to a team they should not have but have yet to knock someone off that they should not have either. If LSU goes down this Saturday at Missouri, a good victim possibly looming for the Tigers to knock off would be The Bayou Bengals. Auburn will travel to Baton Rouge next week after a timely bye week to play a night game inside Tiger Stadium. Auburn upset LSU back in 2021 at night and before that it had been 1993 since Auburn won there under the lights. Feisty Ole Miss will come to Jordan-Hare in two weeks. The last time The Rebels came to Auburn was Halloween Night in 2021. Lane Kiffin looked like he had seen a black cat before that game and uncomfortably got destroyed by Bryan Harsin off all people that night. Beware Auburn in Jordan-Hare Stadium at night in October. Many good teams have been whipped by Auburn under those circumstances. Just ask Urban Meyer what that is like a la 2006.
Speaking of uncomfortable in Jordan-Hare Stadium. Has anyone started giving now Alabama Head Coach Nick Saban any Wellbutrin yet? He may need some anxiety medicine built up now for his biannual trip to the plains. It is a long time before November 25th, but already RFA is hearing local “Bammers” on the radio griping about the so-called “Indian Burial Ground” they will be visiting in late November. If folks thought it was wild and loud inside JHS on Saturday vs Georgia, just wait. The Tigers (minus severe injury) should be a team you do not want to play towards the end of the season and fans will be just as salty as Thanksgiving looms.
IN HUGH WE TRUST
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